It's almost Oscar time again, the one group of awards I actually care about. Last year I did a post ranking the best picture nominees but since I already did a favorite movie of the year post for 2010 and most of the ten nominees for Best Picture are already included, there's no point in rehashing it again. This years Oscar post will have to be something different. By "something different," I obviously mean do what a million other people do and predict the winners. I have seen every movie that is up for a major award (acting, directing, best picture) with the exception of Biutiful and Waste Land. I didn't predict the awards for screenplays, editing, cinematography, art direction, sound design, etc. because it would be total guesswork. Here then lies who I think will win and who I would vote for in the major acting and directing categories, as well as my rank of the ten Best Picture nominees in order of what I think their chances of winning are.
Best Actor Nominees:
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King's Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours
Who I would vote for: Firth. If you've seen The King's Speech, you'll know why.
Who I think will win: Firth.
Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
Christian Bale in The Fighter
John Hawkes in Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech
Who I would vote for: Bale. His livewire performance is the biggest highlight of a movie full of highlights.
Who I think will win: Rush. He's a worthy choice and I think The Kings Speech will dominate a lot of the awards.
Best Actress Nominees:
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Who I would vote for: Lawrence. With apologies to Hawkes, she almost singlehandedly carries the best film of the year.
Who I think will win: Portman. She's got the flashiest role and even though I'm not as high on it as a lot of people, I don't think Black Swan will get shut out on Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actress Nominees:
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Melissa Leo in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Who I would vote for: Leo. All these nominees are worthy but Leo played the overbearing mother to perfection.
Who I think will win: Steinfeld. She's really playing the lead and this category has a history of going to young actresses.
Best Director Nominees:
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
David O. Russell for The Fighter
Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
David Fincher for The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit
Who I would vote for: Fincher. The screenplay will get most of the credit but The Social Network really has no business being as good as it is. Fincher was a giant part of that.
Who I think will win: Hooper. The last 8 winners of the Directors Guild Best Director award have gone on to win this Oscar. Guess who won this year?
Best Documentary Nominees:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
Who I would vote for: I haven't seen Waste Land but the other four are all excellent. Restrepo had by far the biggest emotional impact on me and would get my vote.
Who I think will win: I really have no idea but I'm going to guess Exit Through the Gift Shop. I think people will fall under Banksey's spell.
Now onto the Best Picture candidates. Keep in mind this is the order in which I think they have the best chance of winning, not what I consider the best movie.
10. Toy Story 3
An animated film has almost zero chance of taking home the best picture award. This will obviously win Best Animated Picture.
Even though it would be my vote for Best Picture, I was pretty surprised that it was even nominated.
8. Inception
I would have ranked Inception much higher before the nominations were released but Nolan not getting a best Director nomination pretty much sealed the deal that this will have to settle for technical awards.
This is sure to get some love from the Indie loving members of the academy but it's not nearly a big enough hit to warrant serious consideration.
6. 127 Hours
Even though Franco will be hosting and is up for Best Actor, I just can't see 127 Hours appealing to a wide enough base of voters.
5. Black Swan
Black Swan has to be just a bit too weird to really have a chance. Plus it's just not as good as most of the other nominees.
Director David O. Russell doesn't exactly have a great relationship with Hollywood. The movie might be a little too predictable to win as well.
3. True Grit
While it wouldn't shock me to see True Grit take home best Picture, I have my doubts that the Coen Brothers can win that award so soon after No Country For Old Men.
This was definitely the frontrunner when it was released in October but a lot of the buzz seems to have died down. I still think it has a realistic shot at winning but it will probably fall just short.
1. The King's Speech
It's got the most current buzz, the most nominations in "major" categories and the Academy has a history of loving period pieces and British dramas. I'm about 85 percent sure this will bring home the Best Picture award come Sunday night.
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